A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
